Happy quarantine everyone – like most of us I write this from home, perched on a couch with my hand stuck in a bag of popcorn in perpetual snack-mode. As many millennials have done, I left my lonely one bedroom apartment for my parents’ home where I can quarantine with free food and some much needed dog companionship. It’s for the good of everyone, as they say. 

This is a difficult and uncertain time we’re living in. Not much is known about the COVID-19 virus and as healthcare professionals work tirelessly to save lives, we work from home promising to never again take a trip to Olive Garden for granted. We don’t know when the laws of social distancing will be lifted, or when the curve will finally flatten, however, many have insisted that warmer weather may aid in the dissolution of the virus. Others have said that 2020 is cancelled and are already looking to 2021 to reinvent themselves. But before you dive into the next buzzfeed quiz on which “Tiger King” character you are, (too late, already did) let’s examine what weather patterns and conditions might be contributing to the spread of viruses such as the novel coronavirus, and what that could mean for our future. 

As it stands on April 30th, 2020, there are 3,090,445 confirmed cases of the new strain of coronavirus known as COVID-19, with 217,769 tragic deaths. That is almost a 275% increase from when I started writing this article at the beginning of the month. So why has this pandemic spread so quickly? Weather and climate have played a critical role in this multifaceted mystery. 

It’s the end of winter heading into spring (or if you live in the midwest – a day of 70 degree weather followed by a day of snow). Days are getting longer but there’s still a chill in the air. Remember when you’d go outside without a coat and your mom would say you were going to “catch a cold”… or in this case, a virus? As it turns out, there’s actually scientific evidence to support this statement.

Research has shown the primary reason that viruses such as the flu thrive in winter, (creating our common flu season) is because of the lack of moisture in the air when compared to summer. In the midlatitudes of the northern hemisphere (like North America, Asia, and Europe) the atmosphere cools down in the winter months as the Earth tips farther away from the sun. Water does not evaporate as readily in this colder air as it does in warmer air. This is because as temperature decreases, water molecules become less energetic and slow down. They do not have the energy to change from liquid water to water vapor. (Kind of like how your sibling can’t be bothered to expense the energy of getting up to get you a glass of water). 

“Dry air, so what?” Sounds like a normal Friday in February. This dry air, however, sustains liquid droplets in the air from coughing, sneezing, and even breathing. Imagine a sauna. When water is poured over the hot coals, steam immediately enters the dry, enclosed space and remains. The same analogy goes for a dry room. These minute water particles being sprayed into the air are able to float in the stagnant dry air longer than in the often humid air of the summer since the air is not yet saturated. 

This suggests that air molecules containing viruses such as the flu or the new Coronavirus are thus able to live longer in these drier winter months, and spread farther. 

We don’t completely understand how Covid-19 is spread, however according to the CDC it’s thought to be transmitted “Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes or talks”. These could hang in the air to be breathed in as mentioned before, or possibly be transmitted through touching a hard surface where the infected droplets have landed, and then touching your eyes, nose, or mouth (A final reminder to please wash your hands or be publicly shamed). 

Picture “Karen” for instance, in line behind you at Trader Joe’s. She coughs without covering her mouth and a fine spray of water particles enter the air in your vicinity, lingering amidst that of others carrying bacteria and possibly viruses and other nasty substances for you to breathe in. Sound gross? It is. 

Now that we might understand the seasonal qualities contributing to the spread of illness, what does this mean for our future? While evidence points to the virus spreading easier during the winter, that does not necessarily mean we’ll see it disappear this summer. We may see a resurgence in the fall, and possibly again next winter if the virus mutates and social distancing measures are lifted. 

As our climate continues to change in the coming years, altered weather patterns, and increased air pollutants will continue to lead to decreased air quality. In turn, this can make us more susceptible to respiratory illnesses such as the flu or COVID-19 as it irritates our airways. 

In a world with increasing contamination from ground-level ozone and particulate matter, contracting a respiratory illness could be far more dangerous. Recent research has shown that people are more likely to die from COVID-19 in areas with long-term exposure to poor air quality than those who live in less polluted areas. And it’s not just corona-related viruses we should be concerned about. 

Altered weather patterns and temperatures due to our changing climate could impact the spread of infectious diseases and viruses. In regions where the globally averaged temperature is expected to increase, the geographic reach of mosquitoes and the associated disease they carry, malaria, could broaden. Additionally, increased travel, land use, and other activities among humans could lead to increased exposure of malaria and other animal-borne diseases, such as lyme disease. 

On the flip side of this, If the globally averaged temperature is increasing, doesn’t that mean viruses won’t survive as well? Not necessarily. The impacts from climate change aren’t a blanketed effect over the entire world. Different regions will see different extremes. Climate change generally exacerbates problems, and in those regions that will get colder, we could see the worsened spread of viruses. 

These are scary times we’re living in. As we adapt to conference calls in PJs, try and enjoy the extra connectivity between family and friends, and the abundant encouragement as the world comes together against a common enemy (COVID-19, not that new 1000 piece puzzle). Hopefully this knowledge of environmental factors contributing to the spread of illness gives you valuable information and aids in your motivation to fight the good health fight, and stay inside. But by all means, if not, please continue your Netflix binge.